| Manufacturing (FOB) | $18.00-28.00 |
| Sea freight + customs | $4.50-6.00 |
| Landed cost | $22.50-34.00 |
| Amazon referral (15%) | $10.50 |
| FBA fulfillment | $10.00-13.00 |
| PPC (est. $8-12/sale) | $10.00 |
| Returns (5-8%) | $3.50-5.60 |
| Net profit/unit | $6.89-18.59 |
| Margin | 10-26% |
| Manufacturing (FOB) | $24.00-35.00 |
| Sea freight + customs | $6.00-8.00 |
| Landed cost | $30.00-43.00 |
| Amazon referral (15%) | $15.00 |
| FBA fulfillment | $12.00-15.00 |
| PPC (est. $10-14/sale) | $12.00 |
| Returns (5-8%) | $5.00-8.00 |
| Net profit/unit | $7.99-31.55 |
| Margin | 8-31% |
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Score | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese clones within months of success | 90% | High | 9 | Design patent, brand moat, first-mover UGC library |
| Cultural backlash (viral cancel attempt) | 30% | Critical | 8 | Latino creator partnerships, "celebration not costume" positioning |
| Demand miss (nobody cares) | 40% | High | 7 | Kickstarter validates before inventory commitment |
| Manufacturing quality issues | 35% | High | 7 | Pre-production samples, QA testing plan, factory audit |
| Seasonal cash flow crunch | 50% | Medium | 6 | Launch timing (March-April), inventory planning |
| "Sombrella" trademark refused | 40% | Medium | 5 | File anyway ($350), have backup names ready |
| Amazon policy/listing issues | 20% | Medium | 4 | Compliance from day one, CPSIA testing |
Everything we can do without spending a dollar or contacting anyone.
| # | Task | Who | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Competitive landscape scan (Amazon, Alibaba, Etsy, patents) | AI | DONE |
| 2 | Demand validation (search volumes, Google Trends, seasonal patterns) | AI | DONE |
| 3 | Cultural sensitivity analysis | AI | DONE |
| 4 | Full unit economics model | AI | DONE |
| 5 | Engineering specs + BOM | AI | DONE |
| 6 | Marketing strategy + influencer list | AI | DONE |
| 7 | Kickstarter playbook | AI | DONE |
| 8 | Risk matrix + kill criteria | AI | DONE |
| 9 | Prototype build guide (for contractor) | AI | IN PROGRESS |
| 10 | AI product mockups (DALL-E/Midjourney renders) | AI | NEXT |
| 11 | Social media test posts (gauge organic reaction) | AI + Keith | NEXT |
| 12 | USPTO TESS trademark search for "Sombrella" + variants | AI | NEXT |
Only proceed if Phase 0 passes all kill criteria.
| Spend | Item | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| $173 | DIY prototype materials | Physical proof of concept — hand to contractor |
| $100-150 | Contractor/seamstress labor | Build the prototype |
| $10-50 | Domain registration | Lock in web presence |
| $0 | Product photos of prototype | Real images for social testing |
| ~$350-400 | GO/NO-GO: Does the physical prototype look amazing? Does it work? | |
Only proceed if prototype impresses AND social media tests show interest.
| Spend | Item | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| $150-300 | 2-3 factory samples from Alibaba | Real manufacturer quality check |
| $350 | USPTO trademark (Intent-to-Use) | Lock in brand name |
| $520 | MA LLC formation | Only if samples are good |
| $200 | Professional product photography | Listing-ready images |
| $200-400 | Kickstarter video production | Pre-launch content |
| ~$1,500-1,800 | GO/NO-GO: Do factory samples meet spec? Kickstarter campaign ready? | |
Only proceed if Kickstarter funds OR all prior gates pass convincingly.
| Spend | Item | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| $3,000-8,000 | Production run (300-500 units) | First inventory |
| $2,000-4,000 | Amazon PPC launch | Drive initial sales velocity |
| $500-1,000 | A+ content, Storefront, brand | Conversion optimization |
| $500 | MA Annual Report + misc | Compliance |
| ~$6,000-13,500 | Cumulative total all phases: $8,000-16,300 (within $20K cap) | |
Full build guide being generated with step-by-step instructions, shopping list with direct URLs, and a contractor job posting. This section will be updated when the Engineer agent completes the guide.
33 creators identified across 5 categories:
Full list with handles, follower counts, engagement rates, and rate ranges in Marketing_Package.md
This is a social-discovery product, not a search-capture product. People don't search for "sombrero umbrella" — they discover it on TikTok and say "I need that." The entire GTM strategy must be built around viral content, not Amazon SEO.
| Agent | Responsibilities | Autonomy |
|---|---|---|
| CTO | Technical decisions, supplier vetting, quality specs | High |
| Marketing | Social media, PPC, email, influencer outreach | Medium — Keith approves outreach to humans |
| Product/Finance | P&L, cash flow, inventory, pricing | High |
| Engineering | Manufacturing specs, QA, packaging | High |
| Research | Competitive monitoring, trend tracking | High |
| Big Yeti Claw | Coordination, Keith communication, decisions | Orchestrator |
| Phase | Keith's Role | Hours |
|---|---|---|
| Phase 0 | Review reports, approve strategy, post test content | 2-3 hrs |
| Phase 1 | Hand materials to contractor, inspect prototype, take photos | 3-4 hrs |
| Phase 2 | Sign LLC docs, inspect factory samples, record Kickstarter video | 5-8 hrs |
| Phase 3 | Receive inventory, ship to FBA, approve ad spend | 5-10 hrs |
| Steady state | Approve reorders, bank transfers, judgment calls | 3-5 hrs/month |
Amazon Seller Central ($40), Helium 10 ($30-50), Google Workspace ($6), Canva ($0-13) — all manageable by AI agents directly.
Items 4-6 are free and can run in parallel. Item 3 is the first dollar spent.